Thomas PAGANO (né en 1974) : The river forecaster song

Poème écrit par un modélisateur, ancien prévisionniste, qui rédige d'ailleurs un blog tout à fait poétique


The rivers rose throughout the night
the users woke in such a fright
The rain came down like cats and dogs
the channels choked with fallen logs
"What should we do?" they cried aghast
"Lets hope this night is not our last"
It all begins with NWP [1]
to say what future rain will be.
Not knowing that will leave you sunk
too bad the results always stunk.
If by now you aren't defeated
find out if the soils' depleted.
Simulate a little bit and
find parameters with good fit.

But don't catch bad habits like
helping models breed like rabbits.
Existing structures are just fine
unless you need to say "all mine!"
GR4J seems fine to me
but demonstrating skill is key.
Is there an incremental gain ?
Or are the results just the same ?
We must say how uncertain we are
especially in leadtimes far
If the forecasts are off kilter
I recommend a Kalman Filter
Or maybe try your best and let
Error Correction clean the mess.
We present wrapped like in a gift
as some software we now call SWIFT
SWIFT makes forecasts to be trusted
SWIFT won't leave you feeling busted
There's one block to this thing
that keeps us from our researching
Others sure do have it easy [2]
The whole ordeal makes me queasy
My wife slaves away very late
Squadrons of Anzac cookies she must bake
I beg for sub daily data [3]
and the Bureau says "uh... see you later !"
Well, if you agree to our demands
I ask now to join your hands
Give it up and cheer like fools
For Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools!

[1] Numerical Weather Predictions
[2 ]Because they use daily data
[3] Hourly data is hard to find in Australia